Female MB Representative Supports FGM

In a move that is raising a great many questions, Azza El Garf, a female representative in the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party, has expressed her support for the practice known as Female Genital Mutilation.

In Egypt's post-revolution parliament, female representatives make up a meagre 1 percent of legislatures currently serving. Of this 1%, El Garf is a prominent figure. Her recent comments on FGM shed distinctive light on what the potential future for women in Egypt may be shaping up to be.

The Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party made headway with voters during initial voting rounds by promoting their family friendly ideals and their staunch support of Islamic Shariah as the primary source of legislation. For months now, liberal thinkers and women have speculated on how the FJPs domination in the parliament could potentially reverse the small milestones achieve by women in Egypt. With this parliament dominated by men, the little hope remained in the 1 percent female representation to stand firm in the progress made in the past few years. El Garf's comments serve as an indication that even these women may not be the defenders of women's rights they were hoped to be.

Commenting on the current perception of women in parliament, El Garf says: "People here think women can be a doctor, go to university, be a teacher or an engineer ... But people still think 'women are no good at politics.' We want to change this view."

In what initially appears to be a clear statement that women are here to express their ability to play a crucial role in politics, El Garf goes on to comment on the individual rights that women in Egypt have won over the past few years.

One of these was a ban imposed in 2008 on female castration, or genital mutilation.

"It is a personal decision and each woman can decide based on her needs. If she needs it, she can go to a doctor," El Garf says. She further highlights that according to the Muslim Brotherhood, the procedure is considered a beautification plastic surgery.

The World Heath Organization defines FGM as:  "procedures that intentionally alter or cause injury to the female genital organs for non-medical reasons." It goes on to say that the procedure has no health benefits for girls or women.

The practice of FGM is in itself contentious. Many traditional societies believe that through FGM, the purity of a young girl can be preserved by removing the unclean portion of her genitals. Others believe that removing the clitoris prevents a woman from have sexual urges, thereby ensuring she will not be tempted to engage in illicit sexual behaviour. The list of negative repercussions it can cause to a woman are endless, and include but are not limited to: cysts, infections, infertility, and in some cases death. FGM is primarily carried out on younger girls, mostly before the age of 15.

Despite this, El Garf's opinion is that a girl should have the right to choose to mutilate her genitals or not. But the question here is, how many young girls aged 1-15 will fully understand the repercussions? To provide a girl with the right to make a choice will require educating her on the potential impact later on in life, does this then mean El Garf is suggesting launching earlier sex education for women to be able to make an informed decision on FGM?

More worrying are El Garf's statements on divorce. Many women in Egypt, particularly Muslim women, are forced to suffer long and troublesome marriages, oftentimes in an abusive situation. In what at the time was considered a land-mark move, in 2005 the Egyptian courts passed a law permitting a Muslim woman the right to file for a 'no-fault' divorce without first needing the permission of her husband or a male relative. El Garf believes these have allowed the legislation surrounding divorce to become too "lax," and supports the imposition of more stringent conditions for divorce. She does not clarify if this means that the husband's permission will first be required for any woman to file for a divorce, nor anything about women facing abusive husbands.

As the FJP continues to solidify its hold in the Egyptian political arena, comments such as those made by El Garf are becoming more frequent. Feminists in Egypt have much to worry about upon seeing a woman verbally trample on the minor rights they have long and hard fought for. Many of those who fought hard to bring 30 years of dictatorship to an end are now asking themselves, "is this the democracy we fought and died for?"

To read more on El Garf, click here.

The US war in Iraq is officially over!!!

Today marks the day that the last U.S. convoy leaves Iraq, leaving a country that is learning to stand on its own two democratic feet. It has been a long nine years, and has cost Iraq and the U.S. dearly. I hope that Iraq becomes a beacon for the rest of the Arab world on what real political cohesiveness and positive outlooks for the future can bring about for a country, even one devastated by war. Below, a report from Aswat al-Iraq on the last U.S. convoy to leave Iraq and signal the end of a nine year conflict.


BAGHDAD / Aswat al-Iraq: The last US Army convoy has crossed Iraq's borders into Kuwait on Sunday at dawn, officially ending the withdrawal of the American Forces from Iraq.

The final withdrawal comes after 9 years of war and military interference, resulting in the deaths of 4,500 Americans and tens of thousands of Iraqis, Reuters News Agency reported.

"The last US convoy, including 100 American armored vehicles, carrying 500 soldiers, have crossed Iraq's southern desert during Saturday night, on the main highway leading to the Kuwaiti borders," Reuters added.

US Staff Sergeant Christian Schutlz said, prior to leaving Contingency Operating Base Adder, 300 km to the south of Baghdad, and heading for border, “It’s good to see this thing coming to a close. I was here when it started."

"I saw a lot of good changes, a lot of progress, and a lot of bad things too," he added.

Voting in Egypt gets underway

What an exciting day for Egypt today. The start of what is hoped will be true democracy in the country. Even Google has gotten in on the Egyptian spirit.

Already there are reports of votes being 'bought' and individual lists and candidates handing out sugar, tomatoes, and meat to entice Egyptians to vote for their party, as well as reports indicating that again the dead are able to cast their votes. But I have not confirmed any of this, and it's not surprising to see rumours abound. I did however pass the polling station closest to my house earlier on today, and was happy to see people queuing up to cast their votes, with army and police personnel stationed around the entrance to help provide security. The next few months will be a telling time for the future of Egyptian politics, and I wish everyone today who is out there voting the best of luck. Yalla Masr!

For live updates on the progress of the elections, provided by al-Masri al-Yawm, click here. 

So what's keeping the youth protesting?

I was sent this article by a friend of mine, which basically provides an overview on what it is that the Egyptian youth are still looking for in the post-revolutionary period. It's a series of 26 questions that they feel have yet to be addressed by the Army, which is undermining the impact of the revolution. I, however, do not agree with all the points raised herein, and will put my comments in Italics between the questions.

Let me first say, in my opinion people have come to believe that Egypt can, and should, change overnight. This is an entirely unrealistic approach, who expects from 30 years of dictatorial rule that a country will instantaneously become a democracy overnight and thereby eliminate all of the factors that kept the people suppressed for the past three decades. To successfully rebuild a country requires time, and trust. Trust is the huge factor that is absent in Egypt at the moment. While the recent elections would make it appear that an overwhelming majority of Egyptians are prepared to amend the constitution, rather than scrap it entirely, trust in the ruling regime is waning rapidly. When the Army first came onto the streets, people felt that things would improve, that the Army would readily support the will and wishes of the people. Yet as time goes by, it becomes more and more clear that many of the youth are realising that although Mubarak has gone, his regime and the elements that kept him in power for so long are still around. As such, the trust in the Army is waning. I believe that it will take an entire generational span to effectively change this country around; with the revolutionary youth implanting their beliefs in the upcoming generation, only then will we begin to see the prospect of a real civil shift within Egyptian society.

So here is the article, from The Daily News Egypt.

CAIRO: In an ironic numerical coincidence, 67 days after the January 25 outbreak of the popular revolt that toppled Egypt’s 30-year regime and its dictator ex-president Hosni Mubarak, Egyptians have returned to Tahrir Square to “save the revolution,”

For some, the connection between 67 days and the Naksa is all too poignant. In the 1967 Naksa (setback) Egypt lost a six-day war against Israel which cost it the entire Sinai Peninsula and during which Israel annexed the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights.

Many who went to Tahrir on Friday were feeling, perhaps with little reasonable justification, that a similar setback is “stealing the revolution,” a phrase frequently used to describe a potential disaster scenario where after the dust settles and the euphoria of getting rid of Mubarak subsides, everything will go back to the way it was before, the only difference being in the names and faces.

While I personally do not believe that Egypt will ever return to the horror of its black pre-Jan. 25 reality, many Egyptians do, and here are 26 questions they’re asking:

1. Why aren’t Mubarak and his family in court until now? If sources are correct, Mubarak has already fled the country. Given his long-standing friendly ties with many Western nations and his deteriorating health, it is unlikely that Mubarak will ever see the inside of a court-room. A troubling fact indeed. 
2. Why is ex-interior minister Habib El-Adly still not being tried for his involvement in the killing of peaceful protesters in the early days of the revolution?
3. Why did the Prosecutor General wait over a month and a half before imposing a travel ban on the icons of the past regime, 21-year House Speaker Fathi Sorrour, National Democratic Party (NDP) and Shoura Council Speaker Safwat El-Sherif, ex-chief of presidential staff Zakaria Azmy and former housing minister Mohamed Ibrahim Soliman? Sadly, not surprising seeing as how ousting Mubarak did little to shift the power-house that allowed him to remain in power for so long.
4. Why has the National Democratic Party not been dissolved? A better question would be, why is the NDP being allowed to head up the constitutional amendments and plans for the upcoming elections in November?
5. Why are former NDP leaders still allowed to participate in the political transition to democracy, despite the clear conflict of interest? My comment remains the same as with question 3.
6. Why is the state of emergency still in place? Because Egypt remains in a state of emergency? Security in the country is dwindling on a daily basis with the crime rate skyrocketing. Would it really be prudent to remove this legislation now? In time, of course it should be lifted. When stability returns to the country. 
7. Why have governors and heads of local councils appointed by the previous regime not been replaced?
8. Why have leading figures in the Egyptian Radio and Television Union not been removed from their positions despite inciting violence against protesters and spreading disinformation during the uprising? This is sadly evidence that the old regime maintains a stronghold on power. From my own sources within the Middle East News Agency (MENA), I know that they struggled to overthrow their "corrupt" editor in chief, without success. 
9. Why is there a media blackout on the severe human rights violations committed by members of the military police against Tahrir protesters on March 9? Similarly, why are the attacks on women protesters in Tahrir square on International Women's Day not being investigated?!
10. Why is there a similar media blackout on violations by the army including the use of cattle prods, to disperse Cairo University students demanding the removal of the dean on the Faculty of Mass Communication?
11. Why has the army maintained a monopoly over all decisions, while staging an unnecessary referendum which cost the state coffers LE 200 million when, in effect, all its decisions have been unilateral?
12. Why doesn’t the constitutional decree recently announced by the army shrink the powers of the president?
13. Why is the army insisting on fast legislative elections, even though all indicators signify that they can only lead to an overwhelming majority for Islamists and ex-NDP members? Hmm...is it even remotely possible that the army does not actually WANT real democratic change in Egypt? 
14. Why is the army being secretive in its drafting of vital laws that will see the country through the transition, such as the much debated law regulating the establishment of political parties?
15. Why did the Illicit Gains Authority only just approach the EU to demand the freezing of assets by leading members of the former regime?
16. Why has the government not set a minimum wage until now? This, I believe, is an irrational goal to believe should have been fulfilled by now. The Egyptian economy is still struggling to recover, until stability returns to the financial markets, where is the extra cash to cover the new minimum wage meant to come from? 
17. Why is Cabinet attempting to intimidate workers by proposing a ban on workers’ strikes in a blatant violation of International Labor Organization standards?
18. How can we trust investigators and prosecutors that were all part of the previous state machinations?
19. Why hasn’t the ruling army council set up a special tribunal of known judges and prosecutors untainted by connections with the previous regime to probe the corruptions cases?
20. Why is the army council side-lining the young activists who sparked the revolution?
21. Why has there been no official investigation into the attack on presidential hopeful Mohamed ElBaradei on referendum day?
22. What is the fate of the hundreds of thousands of Egyptians trapped in Libya?
23. Why haven’t all political detainees been released? Yes, some detainees should be released, particularly those who were incarcerated purely for expressing their ideals that differed from those of the state. But all detainees? All at once? 
24. What is the mandate of new Interior Ministry arm — National Security —that has replaced the notorious State Security apparatus?
25. What is the Interior Ministry doing with the State Security files?
26. What is the government doing about the rising domination of the Salafi discourse threatening a bigger role of religion in politics?

Many of these questions betray a deeply engrained lack of trust between the people and authorities, which is slowly poising [poisoning] some peoples’ image of the army as a just arbitrator and protector.

However, when it comes to the constitutional decree announced Wednesday, I share the view of Amr Hamzawy, researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in a column in Al-Shorouk Friday, that despite a few critiques, hats off to the army for not abusing its current position by giving itself more powers in the interim phase and promising to pass on all legislative authorities to the PA as soon as it is elected.

All other changes like shrinking the president’s sweeping powers, for instance, or canceling the Shoura Council, will be in the hands of the constituent assembly charged with drafting a new constitution.

Since we have chosen the path of democracy, we must accept that democracy takes time, but that only vigilance, self-education, political awareness, persistence and transparency will guarantee that we’re on the right track.

For now we must also accept that chaos too is part of the transition and that the only way to avert descending into absolute chaos is to move the tug-of-war between the will of the people and the power of the state from the street to the dialogue table. We don’t want the million man protests to lose their impact, who knows when we’ll seriously need them again.

Rania Al Malky is the Chief Editor of Daily News Egypt.

Egyptian Democracy 101

With Egypt acclimatizing to its new found freedom and democracy, people are increasingly becoming active within their own communities. If Tahrir had one vital message, it was that the power of the people had the ability to change an entire regime.

I was able to witness the new form of democracy taking hold in Egypt first hand. Grass roots level. Community building and delegation of duties. The best way to describe it would be as a homeowner's associations meeting for the residents of Mubarak 6, a suburb here in Hurghada.

Roughly 40 residents from the area gathered together to elect themselves a new president, vice president, treasurer (or as the title was given "accountant"), and member. For anyone who has lived in Egypt, you will understand the chaos that involved bringing together this many people, who all had something to say. For those unfamiliar with business meetings in Egypt, allow me to paint a picture.

• Manners are not key. If someone is speaking, and you just don't care what they have to say, don't listen. Turn around to your buddies, and engage in a loud and boisterous conversation. 
• Phones do not need to be silenced. We all want to hear your conversations. Truly we do. 
• Children, particularly loud children, are welcomed with open arms. 
• Make sure that you always get the last word. People will only ever pay attention to the last word, or at least that is the prevailing mentality it seems when it comes to meetings here. 

So, you've got the picture in your mind. Chaos. Does order come from chaos? Not in this case, but what did emerge was something entirely different.

Work brought me to this meeting. I was there, to launch a new community driven project. My thoughts on that aside, it gave me the opportunity to watch these new democratic ideals in action.

First on the agenda, the election of the president. First guy up, Mr. M. Now, Mr. M speaks no English, and many of the home-owners do not speak Arabic. That in itself was a clusterfuck; Egyptians unable to understand the English speakers were just left looking baffled, while translations from Arabic to English were haphazardly thrown out there in bits and pieces. Mr. M pronounces himself as a police officer. This in turn pissed off a group of Egyptians in attendance, who were asking what kind of a joke this was, and announcing that they would leave. Mr. M finished his speech by proclaiming his qualifications entail his "connections in the government." Europeans in the room responded "there is no government, so your connections don't mean much now!" Mr. M was followed by a second candidate for president, equally long-winded, equally stressing his amazing connections with the government as primary qualifications. He left people with a gemstone of a quote though... "Important one is the one to do his best, with which budget. A president without resources, the result will not be anything." (hmm. fluff my pockets and I'll get you what you need.)

The remaining speeches basically re-iterated the same items again and again. Connecting with one's audience was not a strong suit. Perhaps it's a lack of knowledge when it comes to effective debate, but the same points were raised again and again.

My favourite quote from the night came from a local Mubarak 6 resident. "Can we change the name? We don't want to hear the name Mubarak anymore! How about Freedom 6?"

There were unfortunately a few elements that demonstrated that real democracy in Egypt will really take time to come into effect. I was told a few days before the meeting that "Mr. M and his VP would be the president and VP." This, before the vote even happened. In addition, came the accountant's speech, who assured people that it was illegal for a non-Egyptian to hold this position. This caused mass uproar, while laughter at the same time. You see, the treasurer for Mubarak 7 was sitting in the room; a lovely woman from Germany, who was very staunch in announcing that she was treasurer, and obviously foreign. Not surprisingly, this man was elected treasurer (and believe me, if you'd been in the room, you'd be surprised too!).

Overall an enlightening experience. Off to more meetings and "elections" later this week. Should be interesting to see what comes next!

Revolution? Only time will tell

My article, as published in the Cork Independent newspaper.


Susan Richards-Benson, whose mother Maree McClement is from Cork, lives and works as a journalist in Hurghada, Egypt. She gives an eye withness account of the turbulent events in the country’s capital, Cairo, as protestors attempt to overthrow President Mubarak. Since 25 January, Cairo and other major cities throughout Egypt have been racked by protests.

Demonstrators demand the resignation of current President Hosni Mubarak and a re-evaluation of the Egyptian government to combat corruption, to name a few. What began as peaceful protests, primarily organized online by youth, rapidly exploded into a nationwide movement that defies age, social and class lines. Seven days since the protests first began they show no sign of abating. It has transformed from an online movement to spread by word of mouth.

Since being in Egypt, I have worked with a variety of online Egyptian publications which helped further my understanding of people here.

Work took me to Cairo last Friday.

Due to the alleged abuse of the peaceful protesters by the Egyptian police, alongside the resignation of the Interior Minister, any police presence had disappeared from the nation’s streets leaving the army to re-assert order.

In contrast to the resentment felt towards the police force in Egypt, I watched as army tanks were swarmed by cheering young men.

My first night in Cairo was a sleepless one.

Curfew was imposed at 8pm The streets in Cairo resembled those of a ghost town. While 8pm on a Friday night usually means parties and weddings, the night echoed of gun shots and tanks firing rounds into the air.

I was staying alongside the Nile River, in an upscale Cairo suburb. Next to my building stood a jail. The sounds of prisoners rattling their cell doors were met by the sounds of military gunshots.

Periodical firing of the tanks made my blood run cold.

I was scared; my family live overseas and I had no forms of communicating with them due to the internet blockage and disruption to the cell phone services.

The stories of jail breaks and looting wagged many tongues.

Although the protesters themselves were peaceful, a small percentage of hooligans took advantage of the absence of police.

Caireans banded together in neighbourhood watch groups to protect their families and homes. People grabbed any means of protection- rocks, sticks, knives, guns.

Rumours of rape and armed groups made it unwise for women to be outside; instead, they distributed supplies of tea, water and sandwiches to the groups throughout the night. It resonated of basic human nature, the instinct to protect while standing firm in what you believe.

By my second night in Cairo, I felt as though I had seen it all. I witnessed looters hitting the streets with trolleys full of electronic equipment; tear-gas fired as hooligans and live ammo raining around.

Queues at the petrol stations were growing as everyone rushed to fill their tanks; food was flying off the shelves.

Curfew on Saturday was pushed back, and stringent road blocks set up left me stranded at a friend’s house. We spent the night locked away, as two woman, particularly expats, could not safely go out to the streets. Tanks and gunfire again dominated the evening.

When leaving Cairo early on Tuesday, protesters were already making their way into the city’s centre.

My departure lived up to the suspense that the previous days had held. Caught at a check-point on the way out of the city, I witnessed army patrols in front of me apprehend escaped convicts, and blocking the road to protestors heading into Cairo.

Many Western media outlets have expressed concerns that the movement in Egypt has the potential to warp into a religious one. While it certainly did not begin as a religious movement, the difficulties that have arisen as a result of the looting and violence combined with a potential political vacuum may push it in that direction. Is it a revolution in Egypt at the moment? Only time will tell.

Most remarkable in my eyes was the cohesion that formed amongst Egyptians.

My previous experience in Egypt dictates strict social and economic boundaries, but over the past few days these divisions have melted away. If you were to ask any Egyptian how they feel at the moment, the overwhelming response is pride for their country.

The fear that once gripped many here, particularly fear of the police, is a thing of the past. Egyptians are taking democracy into their own hands, and experiencing the power of the people. Although at the moment there is no clear indication of where these protests may lead, what is certain is that the Egyptian people will no longer settle for suppression and censorship as a means of dealing with the masses.

Protesters have given President Mubarak until Friday to resign his position, threatening further demonstrations if he fails to do so.

The future of Egypt and the Egyptian people remains one that is being written day by day.

The trip to Cairo commences

Blog day one: Trip to Cairo.

January 25^th marked a day that will forever have changed the face of Egypt. Protests began in the Egyptian Capital of Cairo, as well as throughout other cities in Egypt. A movement organized primarily by the youth via popular online social networking sites such as Twitter and Facebook rapidly exploded nationwide. On the first day of the protests, I don't think anyone expected them to get as big as they actually did. I watched with apprehension for any updates on Facebook, translating the Arabic blurbs as they flashed onto my mini-feed in an attempt to stay on top of what was going on. Friends were posting their experiences, which grew increasingly worse. It began with tear gas, then protesters being pushed around by the police, to the outrage that sparked the protests that have continued to this day.

Wednesday's protests showed that the movement was growing in momentum. In an attempt to put an end to the spread of the movement online, the Ministry of Information disabled access to Twitter. This deterred few though, as quick fixes and proxy servers were blasted all over Facebook. Protesters were making their demands clearer by the minute, ultimately reaching the consensus that President Hosni Mubarak had to go. Corruption in the government had to be addressed, and the growing youth unemployment had to be swayed.

Tahrir square has become the focal point of these protests, but by no means the sole location of any activity. I shall discuss that in later postings ;). In Hurghada, we weren't really seeing anything. Karim was growing increasingly worried about his family, and I was increasingly itching to see history being made for my own eyes. We decided to make the drive to Cairo, originally planning on leaving on Thursday. Due to work and travel restrictions however, we were forced to delay until Friday…the Day of Rage…

The Ministry of Information noticed that the blocking of Twitter did little to stem the flow of Internet activism. This prompted the Internet as a whole to get shut down, after attempts to block Facebook again were bypassed by people. It was not until today that any net connection has been restored, and God only knows how long it will last!

Restricting access to the Internet was done in an attempt to ensure that the protests for Friday would be minimized. Instead, it had the opposite effect. What was originally a movement dominated by the youth became a movement spread by word of mouth, resulting in numbers unimaginable showing up in Tahrir Square in central Cairo to express their support. Banners calling for Mubarak's resignation were held aloft by protesters who chanted the same. Although I was never able to make it all the way down into Tahrir, as we showed up around 8 in the evening, we did make our way down to the area to see the results of the protest. What we saw shocked me.

Anyone who has been in Cairo knows full well that 8 p.m. on a Friday usually means a flurry of activity throughout the country. Parties, weddings, celebrations dominate the night, leaving the streets crowded and traffic flowing until well into the early hours of Saturday morning. We were met by a ghost town. Stores were shut, people were already inside as we came just as the first night's curfew was imposed.  The Kornish was empty of cars, minus the army patrols that were gradually filing into the streets. I watched as Army personnel set up road blocks with their military Hummers on the side, thinking of how exciting it was to watch this scene unfold before my eyes. Driving further towards downtown, we saw the Mounib Bridge on fire in both directions, as some protesters had set fire to cars on the bridge itself. (again, in a later blog I will highlight the difference between the protesters and those causing destruction!). Groups of men were still on the streets, making their way slowly home after spending the day in Tahrir.

While many may have thought that Friday was the pinnacle of the movement, instead it became more of the starting point for what came the following few days.

Karim and I were staying with his parents along the Kornish in Maadi. Inside Maadi was safe, however had we gotten to the city just a few hours earlier, we would have witnessed protests staged directly outside of Karim's house. At one point his father opened the window to see what was happening and was caught in a haze of tear gas. Now, Karim's house is next to a discreet prison, that were you not told was there, you wouldn't know any better. Would seem to make sense, putting a prison around the location where many police live in Cairo. After Friday though, and the complete disappearance of the police from the streets (seriously…where do 1.2 million "central security forces" just disappear to!??!), our location next to a prison was not exactly prime real-estate. We had already heard rumours of prisoners attempting to break out of their jail cells in other prisons throughout Cairo, although unable to entirely verify if it was true or not. Now we know that it was probably true, and State TV puts estimates at about 15,000 prisoners who have escaped since the escalation of the movement.

Karim and I headed up to his roof to scope out the surroundings and see what we could see. Needless to say the view was amazing. An empty Kornish, and growing army presence on the streets. Next to us we could hear the deafening roar of prisoners who, encourage by the rumours of other break outs, were attempting to break out also. They were rattling their cell doors, leaving the guards with no choice but to fire warning shots into the air, and occasionally sporadic machine gun fire, in which direction I have no idea.

When we made it back downstairs to the street, the Army were bringing in armoured vehicles on to the roads. I watched as youth on the street swarmed the Army vehicle, in what at first I thought was an act of aggression, but which actually ended up being complete support and delight at seeing the Army assume their presence on the streets. Youth were cheering, hugging and kissing the Army personnel as though greeting a long lost friend. It truly was a remarkable sight to witness.

What the night held in store, I couldn't even imagine… Keep reading to find out ;)    

Left speechless

Some would tell you that I have become obsessive since the protests began. (cough cough). I can't help myself, I find it so grossly fascinating to be watching history literally unfolding in front of your eyes. I am actually shocked that the growing effects of these protests are not being felt throughout more of the country. Or even more of the capital!

That aside, I know quite a few people who have participated in the protests in the past two days. I have been vigorously keeping updated, in as many means as possible, with the ongoings downtown. Sometimes it's no more than a brief status update. Other times it has been to repost the accounts of others.

I value the impact of research, and the impact of educating yourself with what is going on around the world. Access to websites in Egypt is intermittent at the moment, with Twitter having been entirely blocked. This in contrast to statements from the Interior Ministry, who claim they have not blocked any sites, and encourage freedom of expression. It cannot be refuted however that many people have experienced temporary disabling of social networking sites, google, e-mail, some even report having lost access to their Skype.

I was left speechless earlier, when asked by people if I could kindly stop posting updates and links, because it was only "worsening" the situation as people from abroad were cancelling their travels and tour leaders were taking Egypt off of the roster. Firstly, it's an individual right to choose not to travel somewhere that you feel uncertain about. Secondly, the media blackouts only serve to limit the real truth escaping, that is that people are standing up in protest and being beaten down for it.

If people in Egypt were to choose to stop protesting because it may potentially limit the income from tourists, isn't that only further exacerbating the problem? Isn't one of the main reasons Egypt is having so many problems at the moment precisely because people would rather line their pockets with money than deal with the harsh reality! Rather than deal with the issues, let's everyone STOP protesting so that I can continue making money from tourists, and living in my 5 star villa. What do I care if some people cannot afford to eat "mayish mushkela." There's just no way to respond to something like that. 

Day 2 continues

As promised, the re-blog from LeAnne.

Day 2 of Egyptian Protests

Social networking has been the way for Egyptians to organize protests and the Egyptian government is reacting. Copyright: LeAnne Graves

Egypt is making international headlines, but for how long?

In the wake of yesterday’s explosive demonstrations where tens of thousands gathered in Cairo’s downtown area with other protests being held throughout Egypt, what will today bring? The government has said that it will not tolerate any rallies and have already stationed several police in key areas throughout the city.

Twitter was shut down yesterday while mobile phone towers in Tahrir Square were cut. Others have experienced the blocking of Facebook, although that is yet to be officially confirmed and I currently have access to mine.

News is spreading that protests were to begin again at 1 pm in Tahrir, the site of yesterday’s largest gathering. Then other reports have these places as meeting spots:

• ·         Cairo - 6th of October City Al Hussari Sq
• ·         Cairo - Nasr City midan el sa3a
• ·         Cairo - Ramsis leading to Tahrir
• ·         Al Mansoura - Al Jala2 Gate
• ·         Assuit - Sawiras Building - Majzoob Square
• ·         Alexandria - After Dhuhr at Al Qaed Ibrahim
• ·         Alexandria - At 2 PM at Al Manshi
• ·         Tanta - In front of the Muhafza Building
• ·         Shebeen Al Kom - Omar Afandi Square

And for the biggest one (reportedly): “Egyptians calling for a ONE MILLION PROTESTER MARCH right after Friday prayers.”

I was in a cab earlier and while police were set up in riot gear throughout certain areas, it was business as usual in Cairo. However, Egyptians panicked and began leaving work early because of supposed “demonstrations.” This doesn’t surprise me at all; any excuse to get out of work and they’ll find it. My cab actually went from the Zamalak bridge to the Corniche (the same bridge that was blocked yesterday) and all was easy breezy.

My cab driver said that he personally didn’t expect much to happen today – which has been the general consensus.  Farouq, a cab driver for 35 years with seven of those years spent in Saudi Arabia, said: “The Egyptian people are tired of Mubarak. Food is getting too expensive. [Term limits] should be made. Everyone is poor.” The Egyptian government wants the international community to believe that this uprising is based upon food subsidies, which government officials have assured the people that it would pick up the rising costs. However, that’s not entirely true. This fight isn’t one of economic disparity, but of political will.

I asked Farouq the same question I asked demonstrators yesterday: if not Mubarak, who? He said, “We want El Baradei. He has a great deal of money and is looking to help poor people.” I followed, “But he’s been away from Egypt for awhile, does he even know the needs of today’s Egyptian?” Farouq just kept explaining how El Baradei fought for the poor man.

Mohamed El Baradei in Brief:

• ·         Former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency
• ·         2005 Nobel Peace Prize winner for his work to curb nuclear proliferation
• ·         No real political experience and the only real opposition Mubarak faces

Take a look at this December interview from Al Masry Al Youm from December 23, the only plan El Baradei has is to unite the opposition. If I were given the opportunity to interview him, my questions instead would have included:

• ·         How do you plan to unite the opposition groups?
• ·         While change can’t occur overnight, what steps will you take in an effort to promote gradual change?
• ·         If elected as leader of Egypt, what will be your first order of business and how do you plan to approach it?

I hear all this rhetoric about his dissatisfaction with the current rule, but what I fail to ever hear are the steps he plans to take. The same is true for the protesters and Farouq.

Farouq talked to me about corruption, and no sooner than he spoke those words, I looked down at his meter that had instantly jumped from LE21.50 to LE36.10 (meters are supposed to go in increments of LE0.25). You can’t fight corruption if you are just as corrupt.

Protests in Cairo

I know of a few people who have said they will head down to these protests in the capital today. My thoughts are with them if they have indeed headed down there, as God only knows what can happen in this country. Egyptian youth are taking it upon themselves to stand up for their own rights, in part inspired by Tunisia. Although not entirely the same situation, there is no doubt that the protests and the upheaval in Tunisia have lit a fire in many in Egypt. Change comes from within, and this change is being effected as we speak, all around us.

For those unfamiliar, here's an article from the BBC.

Anti-government activists in Egypt are preparing for a rare day of protest, inspired by the recent political upheaval in Tunisia.

Organisers have called for a "day of revolt against torture, poverty, corruption and unemployment".

But the government has warned they face arrest and is calling its supporters out in a counter-demonstration.

Weeks of unrest in Tunisia eventually toppled President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia earlier this month.

The events in Cairo are being co-ordinated on a Facebook page - tens of thousands of supporters have clicked on the page to say they will take part.

"Our protest on the 25th is the beginning of the end," Reuters quoted the organisers as saying.

"It is the end of silence, acquiescence and submission to what is happening in our country. It will be the start of a new page in Egypt's history - one of activism and demanding our rights."

The BBC's Jon Leyne in Cairo says event is a direct response to the campaign that ousted President Ben Ali of Tunisia, in which the internet also played an important part.

But there is bound to be scepticism about exactly how many will actually turn up, say our correspondent.

They know they could face a tough response from the police, who often break up protests with violence.

In a statement, the government's security director in the capital said: "The security apparatus will deal firmly and decisively with any attempt to break the law."

Egypt's political opposition is also divided - one leader, Mohamed El-Baradei, has called on Egyptians to take part, but the Muslim Brotherhood, still the most powerful opposition movement, has been more ambivalent.

And unlike Tunisia, the population has a much lower level of education. Illiteracy is high, internet penetration is low.

Egypt has many of same social and political problems that brought about the unrest in Tunisia - rising food prices, high unemployment and anger at official corruption.

But protests so far have only been small-scale, and correspondents say a similar political upheaval is unlikely.

The Death of Egypt's Free Press

Although this was posted last week in the online version of Foreign Policy, it is still an article well worth reading. Particularly for those keeping up to date with the shenanigans of Egypt's upcoming elections. I am familiar with the publication "al-Dustour" from my work with the Arab West Report, and was always supportive of their articles, particularly those that dealt with the sensitive issue of Muslim-Christian relations. Al-Dustour was one of the few publications in Egypt that you could count on for at least telling most if not all of the opinions from both sides.

Written by David Kenner, read on!!

 Ibrahim Eissa, al-Dustour's former editor in chief

In the run-up to November's parliamentary elections, President Hosni Mubarak's allies are silencing what remains of the independent media.

For years, the newspaper al-Dostour has been one of the few independent voices in the Egyptian press. No longer: Its editor in chief, Ibrahim Eissa, was fired today for refusing to toe the government line.

The immediate reason for Eissa's firing appears to be his plan to publish an article written by opposition leader and would-be presidential candidate Mohamed ElBaradei commemorating Egypt's 1973 war with Israel. But in an exclusive interview with Foreign Policy, Eissa said that his dismissal had been planned since the paper was purchased by Sayyid Badawi, a businessman and head of Egypt's Wafd Party, a liberal party that has nonetheless been co-opted by the regime. Eissa referred to Badawi as a member of Egypt's "soft opposition" -- someone publicly pushing for reforms, but who isn't willing to challenge the regime in any serious way.
"They bought the newspaper for $4 million, just to stop me from writing," Eissa said. "They had begun interfering within one week of taking over the paper, and the sale was only finalized 24 hours before I was fired."

Eissa said that the controversy over the ElBaradei article was simply the latest attempt by al-Dostour's board of directors, chaired by Badawi, to censor controversial and anti-government content from the newspaper. ElBaradei, in his article (since published on al-Dostour's website by its staff), argues that the spirit of self-criticism and rational planning, which allowed Egypt to come back from its defeat in the 1967 war with its victory in 1973, is absent from President Hosni Mubarak's regime. The board, Eissa said, was staunchly opposed to publishing the article: "They said that it would lead to revolution in Egypt."

With the 82-year-old Mubarak laying the groundwork for his son Gamal's succession to the presidency and Egyptian parliamentary elections scheduled for November, Eissa's dismissal appears to be part of a larger effort to mute Egypt's most vocal anti-government figures before this leadership transition. Some analysts, including other editors at al-Dostour, have suggested that Eissa's firing might be an attempt by the Wafd to ingratiate itself with the government and thereby secure a larger number of seats in the parliamentary elections.
All signs suggest that the Egyptian government does not intend to loosen its grip on Eissa or allow the democratic process to run its course. A few weeks ago, a television show offering political commentary hosted by Eissa was canceled. Mubarak' s regime has also shown little inclination to allow international monitors to observe the parliamentary elections.

Being silenced by government censors is nothing new for Eissa who, according to Foreign Policy contributor Issandr Amrani's excellent profile, spent seven years as "persona non grata" in the Egyptian press after his first iteration of al-Dostour was shut down. However, he says that he will remain outspoken. "I will continue to be a part of the opposition and will continue to criticize the government," he said.

Eissa will no doubt continue to be as vocal as Mubarak's regime will allow him -- but can al-Dostour, which he labored to transform into a legitimate news source over the past five years, maintain its reputation as a bastion of Egypt's independent press? Eissa spoke throughout the interview in Arabic, with his wife helping to translate his remarks -- but he answered this last question in English himself: "Absolutely not."

 

Egypt and the proposed boycott

This is a story that I have been following with great interest. Not only because I have been living here for over four years and have been able to observe the political spectrum, but because of how this election can potentially re-shape the face of Egypt.

With the polls opening in November, the question on many Egyptians minds is who will succeed the Mubarak throne. Will Gamal assume the post after his father, or will the Egyptian political sphere be shaken up and a new name ascend to the "regal" title of President.

I have quite a few friends who are actively campaigning on facebook for the succession of Gamal to the Presidency. This stirs my interest for a few reasons. Firstly, by Gamal winning the post, would it not make it blatantly obvious that Egypt is in fact a monarchy? Or will he also win the post with an astounding 90 percent of the votes in his favour (cough cough, previous elections ring any bells?).

I have previously posted a story about the Egyptian Cultural Minister rallying a group of intellectuals around him to oppose Gamal's campaign. Unfortunately the nature of political reporting in Egypt is such that it can be quite difficult to gather all the details surrounding each story, as many journalists fear the backlash that may occur if they publish something wrong, or slighted, or even remotely challenging.

Mr. Mohammed ElBaradei is a leading figure in the opposition in Egypt. He is currently rallying the Egyptian youth and population to entirely boycott the elections in November, as "Anyone who participates in the vote either as a candidate or a voter goes against the national will." Mr ElBaradei later told reporters: "If the whole population boycotts the elections totally, it will be in my view the end of the regime."

My opinion on the upcoming elections aside, how is boycotting them entirely going to help? If the population really wants to invoke change, wouldn't voting be the way to do that? How is sitting back and doing nothing not a way of asserting that the population no longer cares, that they have accepted the fact that they have no control over their political future.

To read the full article, check here.

Finally, the honeymoon period is coming to a close

I am so happy to read that more and more people are finally coming out of their honeymoon period with the Obama presidency. Sure, he sounds great...but when push comes to shove, what has he really done since being in office? And don't even get me started on the Nobel Peace Prize. Since when is it enough to win a PEACE PRIZE by giving a speech?

Anyhow, interesting article that I recommend anyone who is interested in U.S. politics should read.

Taken from the BBC

Not much good news on President Barack Obama's birthday

By Katie Connolly BBC News, Washington

 
The inaugural ball was a happier time for Mr Obama, whose wife's approval rating now eclipses his own.

 

Barack Obama celebrates his 49th birthday on Wednesday. Grassroots organisers around the country are holding birthday events to help rally supporters, but will they help the president's flagging approval ratings?

In Washington DC, 18 months can seem like a lifetime. For President Obama, that frosty January morning when he took the oath of office before a veritable sea of well-wishers must seem like a distant memory.
Back then, over two-thirds of Americans rated him favourably. It seemed difficult to imagine that after 500 days in office, political pundits would be warning that this popular young president could be an albatross for vulnerable Democrats in November's mid-term elections.

And yet last week, Pennsylvania Senate candidate Joe Sestak, who is in a tough race against Republican Pat Toomey, told reporters he'd prefer that Michelle Obama campaign for him than her husband. She's now the most popular political figure in the country, according to a recent Gallup poll.

That scenario seemed unthinkable to the masses who lined Pennsylvania Avenue, huddling against the cold, to cheer the new president last January.

But in recent weeks, polling undertaken by the Gallup Organization has suggested disapproval of Mr Obama's presidency is outpacing approval on several occasions.

His approval rating, which has hovered around 47% for more than a month, hasn't broken 50% since mid-May.

 
Both Hillary and Bill Clinton are now more popular than Mr Obama.
 

His former rival Hillary Clinton has fared significantly better, achieving a 61% approval rating in 2010 - a figure matched by her husband, former President Bill Clinton.

Just 36% of Americans approve of Mr Obama's handling of the war in Afghanistan, down from 56% in July 2009, the poll suggests.

In mid July, a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll found support for Mr Obama's economic policies at a new low of 42%.

On another significant issue, the BP oil spill, a June poll conducted by CNN found 59% of survey respondents disapproved of Mr Obama's handling of the matter.

Slow change

As the chorus of critics grows, Mr Obama finds himself on the defensive. In two recent television interviews, the president was at pains to remind viewers that many of the problems he faced were handed to him when he took office.

But that's an argument the public seems increasingly immune to.

"Change has not come fast enough for too many Americans, I know that," Mr Obama admitted via video to the online activists and bloggers gathered at the liberal Netroots Nation convention.

Presidential Approval Ratings

Continue reading the main story Figures for early August in the second year in office:

• Barack Obama: 45%
• George W Bush: 71%
• Bill Clinton: 43%
• George H W Bush: 74%
• Ronald Reagan: 41%
• Jimmy Carter: 39%
• Gerald Ford: 48%
• Richard Nixon: 55%

Source: Gallup

That group were committed early supporters of Mr Obama, but have grown increasingly disgruntled with his presidency.

There seems nary a bright spot for Mr Obama.

But Jeff Jones, managing editor of the Gallup Poll, doesn't think this seemingly precipitous decline in support is particularly unusual.

"I think it is pretty normal, if you look at where other presidents stood at this point in their presidency," Mr Jones told the BBC.

Mr Obama's predecessor, President George W Bush, had impressively high ratings at this point in his presidency, driven largely by a spike in presidential support after the 9/11 attacks.

But Presidents Clinton, Reagan and Carter were all in the 40% range at a similar point in their presidencies. Indeed Mr Obama outperformed all three in July.

"The common thread with those presidents is that they all took office when the economy wasn't doing so well," Mr Jones said. "One difference is that Obama came into office more popular than most elected presidents, so maybe the expectations were a little bit higher."

But when the economy isn't doing well, it is nearly always the most pressing issue on voters' minds, and Mr Jones notes that it is very difficult for a president to have robust approval ratings with a weak economy.
"The economy is generally one of the stronger predictors of how people evaluate the president," he says, which doesn't bode well for Mr Obama's immediate political fortunes.

Still, the president's supporters are trying to capitalise on his 49th birthday today to reignite the energy and enthusiasm that characterised his campaign.

Campaign zeitgeist After the election, the president's impressive campaign apparatus transformed into Organizing for America (OFA), a fundraising and activist organisation with access to the coveted e-mail and call lists compiled during Mr Obama's presidential campaign.

 
 The enthusiasm of the Obama campaign has dissipated during his presidency.
 

OFA is eager to reactivate the millions of Americans who raised money, made phone calls and canvassed their neighbourhoods for Mr Obama.

OFA is attempting to use the president's birthday to provide both a boost for the commander-in-chief and encourage willing volunteers for Democrats in the mid-terms.

"The events that focus on anniversaries or that focus on the president as a personality or someone that people like and identify with tend to do well, so its understandable that they continue to try to tap that enthusiasm," Ari Melber, a writer for The Nation who has studied OFA, told the BBC.

"However, everyone knows there is significant concern from Obama's base about his progress on changing Washington."

OFA supporters received an e-mail from Michelle Obama, asking them to sign a birthday card for her husband, and "let him know that we're ready to take on the year ahead alongside him".

The Washington Post reports that, in what looks like a spot of campaign nostalgia, OFA is urging supporters to bust out their campaign '08 "yes we can" T-shirts, hats and buttons and wear them on Wednesday.
But while recapturing that campaign zeitgeist seems desirable, Mr Melber warns there are risks, particularly for some of the most active campaign supporters who have become some of the most disillusioned.

"There is always a risk that if you only do these kumbaya events and you don't give people meaningful voice then they may tune out," Mr Melber says.

"Most of these people would still like to see Mr Obama re-elected, so we are not talking about a real crisis in his political support. But walking around with a button or wishing the president a happy birthday doesn't really achieve anything either."

For Mr Obama, whose wife and daughters will be out of town for his birthday, it may not be such a happy birthday. Lucky for him, he still has Bo, the family dog.

Egypt's Pharonic Rule

President Hosni Mubarak, or as many have deemed to call him, Egypt's modern Pharaoh, is reportedly very ill, leading many Egyptian commentators and critic to foresee great changes to the Egyptian political stratosphere. Will Hosni Mubarak's son, Gamal, assume the Egyptian crown, or will the conservative Muslim Brotherhood live through their increasing popularity on the streets and gain control over the government in Egypt.

Many Egyptians have a great deal to say on the matter, but equally just as many are content to sit back and say nothing, having become accustomed to the inability to speak out about politics in their country. I ran across an extremely interesting article in The Economist that discusses precisely that, the changing regime in Egypt, and the changing face of modern day Cairo. I felt it pertinent to share it here for all, and have added my comments in bold.

The long wait

After three decades of economic progress but political paralysis, change is in the air, says Max Rodenbeck

Jul 15th 2010

TRAVELLING into Cairo, Egypt’s monster-sized but curiously intimate capital, it is hard to tell if these are the best of times or the worst. Visitors who have long known the city are in two minds. Egyptian expatriates returning home are liable to cringe at the worse-than-ever traffic, the ever-louder noise, the fervid religiosity, and what they often bemoan as a new aggressiveness that spoils their nostalgia for a sweeter, cheerier Egypt. But tourists who came here, say, 20 years ago, tend to delight in the sleeker look of the place, the surprisingly efficient and still friendly service, the far better quality and variety of goods in the markets, and the fact that some taxis now actually have functioning meters. side note: Although many taxi's now have meters, most still don't use them, or for those that do, many will double the cost and overcharge people

Both impressions are right. The new World Bank-funded, Turkish-built terminal at Cairo International airport is as blandly functional as Cincinnati’s or Stockholm’s. Gone are the sweaty officials and greasy baggage handlers of yore, the taxi touts and shoving crowds. A businessman arriving here may be whisked in an Egyptian-built car to the cigar bar at one of Cairo’s dozens of swish hotels—perhaps one at City Stars, a commercial complex on the scale and in the style of Las Vegas. Or perhaps to another fancy hotel in one of the burgeoning gated exurbs in the desert, surrounded by the lavishly watered greenery of a designer golf course. There, the talk will be of beach houses and yachts on the Red Sea, of hot stocks on the Cairo exchange, and of Egypt’s delightfully low-cost labour. which would then encompass less than a third of Egyptian society. Egypt's social strata is one where the idiom "the rich get richer and the poor get poorer" couldn't be more true. Rich upper class Egyptians have more money than they know what to do with, while for many in the lower class, finding enough cash to feed a family for a week (let alone a month) is a far greater concern .

A less lucky traveller, however, might instead see these things as most Egyptians do: in the giant backlit billboards that clutter Cairo’s roadsides and rooftops, vividly flaunting the unattainable. The consumer paradise they display, with perfect hair, light-skinned children and men in pinstripe suits, stands in stark contrast to the harried, shuffling crowds below. Such sights will probably be accompanied by an earful of complaint from the driver stuck in a jam: about corrupt traffic cops and the absurd impossibility of feeding and schooling the kids on $150 a month, but above all about politics, the staple of all Middle Eastern conversationalists.

Political talk in Egypt has always been acidly cynical, but now a new bitterness has crept in (aided in no part by the increasing access to Internet that more Egyptian youth now have). This has not been prompted by any change from above, since little has really changed in Egyptian politics since President Hosni Mubarak came to office 29 years ago. The sour mood is informed instead by the contrast between rising aspirations and enduring hardships; by a growing sense of alienation from the state; and by the unease of anticipation as the end of an era inevitably looms ever closer.

It is not surprising that Egyptians should feel rather like driftwood on the Nile, accelerating towards one of the great river’s cataracts. Their current pharaoh is 82 years old, visibly ailing, and has no anointed successor. Most of his people have known no other leader. The vast majority have grown so inured to having no say in the course of events that the reflex is to float patiently rather than try to paddle. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for November this year and presidential ones for September next. As usual, few citizens are likely to take part. They will watch from the sidelines and accept the preordained results with grim humour.

Losing patience

Nevertheless, the expectation of a seismic shift is almost tangible in the air, and not just because of Mr Mubarak’s health. Egyptians may be renowned for being politically passive, but the rising generation is very different from previous ones. It is better educated, highly urbanised, far more exposed to the outside world and much less patient. Increasingly, the whole structure of Egypt’s state, with its cumbersome constitution designed to disguise one-man rule, its creaky centralised administration, its venal, brutal and unaccountable security forces and its failure to deliver such social goods as decent schools, health care or civic rights, looks out of kilter with what its people want.

For some time Egyptian commentators have been noting resemblances between now and the years before Egypt’s previous seismic shift. That happened in 1952, when a group of army officers rolled their tanks up to King Farouk’s palaces and tossed him out. The coup was wildly popular at the time. It had followed a period of drift and growing tension, marked by strikes, assassinations, riots and intrigues between Communists, Muslim Brothers and the king. Egypt was thriving economically, but the spoils flowed mostly to a cosmopolitan elite that was out of tune with the street. It had a functioning democracy, but ever-squabbling politicians seemed unable to get things done. To general chagrin they could not shake off the lingering influence of Britain, whose soldiers refused to budge from the Suez Canal where they had been encamped since 1882.

The officers’ coup replaced this genteel but dysfunctional constitutional monarchy with one-party rule, fronted by a strongman and backed by secret police, with the tanks idling nearby. Republican Egypt became a model for other Arab dictatorships and forced wrenching changes at home. Its promises of free health and education, land reform and jobs in state factories and offices did lift millions out of misery to mere poverty. The ideology of pan-Arabism trumpeted by the coup leader, Gamal Abdel Nasser, gave Egyptians a place of pride in the world, even if his boldness brought ruinous wars in Yemen and against Israel.

Six decades and four presidents on, the revolutionary regime has metamorphosed into one that encourages private business and allows for some pluralism. Yet it looks to many Egyptians like a waning dynasty—the 45th in the long line of houses that have ruled the world’s most enduring nation since 3000BC. Its promises are largely in tatters. Schools and hospitals are indeed free to enter, but they are grim, bare, crowded places where getting learning or treatment requires cash that many still do not have. The lower middle class of army officers and bureaucrats who rose in the revolution have joined the gentry they were supposed to have ousted, adopted their haughty ways and now share Egypt’s spoils with them. The poor still queue for government-subsidised bread and must scrimp and save to buy a pair of shoes.

The government’s plan to perpetuate itself in office, via the traditional electoral rigmarole, is likely to go ahead. Predictions of change in Egypt have almost always proved wrong; generally it bumbles along much as usual. This time may just be different. The country now faces three main possibilities. It could go the way of Russia and be ruled by a new strongman from within the system. It might, just possibly, go the way of Iran, and see that system swept away in anger. Or it could go the way of Turkey, and evolve into something less brittle and happier for all concerned.